The World Bank has revised its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa, citing the ongoing civil war in Sudan as a major factor stalling development across the region. According to the latest Africa Pulse report released on Monday, sub-Saharan Africa is now expected to grow by just 3% in 2024, a downgrade from the 3.4% projection made in April. This comes after the region’s economy grew by 2.4% in 2023.
The devastating conflict in Sudan, which erupted 18 months ago, is one of the key reasons for the slower growth rate. The violence has displaced around 11 million people—nearly a quarter of Sudan’s 48 million population—forcing many to flee to neighboring countries, according to UN reports.
“The collapse of economic activity in Sudan, triggered by the conflict, has decimated physical and human capital, weakened state institutions, and worsened food security, all of which have contributed to greater displacement,” the World Bank said in its report.
Sudan’s economy is predicted to shrink by 15.1% in 2024, with only a modest recovery expected in 2025, when growth may reach 1.3%. The broader region, excluding Sudan, is expected to grow at 3.5% next year, according to Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa. “Sudan’s economic collapse has had a significant impact on the region’s overall growth rate,” Dabalen remarked. “The Sudanese economy has essentially disappeared.”
Conflict Adds to Regional Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa, home to over 360 million people, is projected to experience economic growth of around 4% by 2025 and 2026. This improvement is expected to be driven by increased private consumption and investment, as inflation rates ease, dropping to 4.8% this year from 7.1% in 2023. However, despite these signs of recovery, the World Bank warned that income per capita in the region is still struggling to reach pre-pandemic levels.
“While African governments are making progress in stabilizing public finances and reducing budget deficits, high debt levels are preventing essential investments in critical sectors like education, health, and infrastructure—areas crucial for long-term and inclusive growth,” said Dabalen.
The World Bank report noted that poverty levels in the region remain stubbornly high. Between 2022 and 2024, extreme poverty has only decreased by 0.5 percentage points, with 36.5% of the population—464 million people—living on less than $2.15 per day this year.
Additionally, the report highlighted rising unrest in countries like Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda, where high living costs, corruption, and poor governance have fueled youth-led protests. The World Bank warned that without addressing inequality through targeted fiscal policies, these tensions could spread across the region.
Calls for Economic Reforms
The World Bank emphasized the need for sub-Saharan African nations to prioritize economic reforms, focusing on reducing fiscal deficits, managing debt, and controlling borrowing costs. The report also stressed the importance of investing in human capital, with particular attention to improving education systems.
“The most crucial task for the region moving forward will be to bring fiscal deficits under control,” Dabalen advised. “This will require not only cutting costs but also reforming the fiscal relationship between citizens and their governments to ensure efficiency and trust.”
As sub-Saharan Africa continues to grapple with multiple challenges, including conflicts, high debt, and underinvestment in vital sectors, the region’s economic future remains uncertain. However, with the right policies in place, there is hope for sustainable growth in the years to come.
