The share price of Teck Resources Ltd. took a hit Thursday as the Canadian mining company announced it is once again lowering its full-year forecast for copper production.
Vancouver-based Teck said it now expects 2024 copper production from all its properties to amount to between 420,000 and 455,000 tonnes, down from an earlier forecast of 435,000 to 500,000 tonnes.
That previous forecast, which dates from July, was in itself a downgrade from Teck’s initial copper production estimate for 2024 of 465,000 to 540,000 tonnes.
Teck also lowered its 2025 production forecast for its flagship Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile, saying it now expects copper production from the site next year to be between 240,000 and 280,000 tonnes, compared to a previously indicated range of 280,000 to 310,000 tonnes.
As of mid-day trading Tuesday, Teck shares were down more than five per cent. On a conference call, CEO Jonathan Price aimed to assure analysts that the company is confident its revised guidance will stick.
“We’ve looked very hard at all the operational and performance drivers here, and we believe the (new) guidance that we’ve put forward here is very much achievable,” Price said.
He added Teck purposefully kept its newly forecasted range broad in order to “reflect some level of ongoing uncertainty associated with an asset that is still in the ramp-up phase.”
Teck’s disappointing copper production forecasts this year have been driven in large part by geotechnical challenges and equipment-related issues at the Quebrada Blanca mine, where work continues to ramp up the US$8.7-billion second phase of the project.
The QB project is key to Teck’s efforts to shift toward metals considered key to the global energy transition. Copper is a crucial component in solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles and batteries.
Price acknowledged that Teck has more work to do to improve ore recoveries at the QB site, but he said he expects much stronger performance from the mine in the second half of 2025 as the startup-related hiccups are worked through.
“(The mine’s) throughput has been ramping up steadily quarter over quarter, towards nameplate capacity,” Price said.
“We do expect to achieve design throughput rates by the end of this year. We’ve also seen evidence of our ability to operate above design throughput rates.”
Teck had originally expected the Quebrada Blanca mine expansion to be operating at full capacity by the end of 2023.
QB saw copper production of 52,500 tonnes in the third quarter of 2024, up from 51,300 tonnes in the second quarter as the production ramp-up progressed.
Teck also took a one-time asset impairment charge related to its Trail operations, which resulted in the company reporting a $748-million loss from continuing operations attributable to shareholders in the third quarter.
Teck said its loss amounted to $1.45 per diluted share for its third quarter compared with a loss of $48 million or nine cents per share a year earlier.
Revenue for the quarter totalled $2.86 billion, up from $1.99 billion in the same quarter last year.
In addition to lowering its copper forecast, the company also lowered its 2024 guidance for molybdenum and refined zinc production and reduced its expectations for zinc net cash unit costs.
On an adjusted basis, Teck says it earned 60 cents per diluted share for its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 16 cents per diluted share a year earlier.
The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 37 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
